Over the past year, $NYUD has displayed a fairly clear pattern of rising and falling volatility. As the market approached local tops, extreme market swings in both directions diminished and as it started trending down, they increased.
Now something curious has happened in July. Note the almost complete absence of negative market breadth. You can see this briefly coming off of the march bottom, but this time it lasted much longer.
So is this a bull market initiation move or something else? The following chart shows some moving averages of the ratio of NYSE up-volume to total-volume.
It certainly looks consistent with the last bull market initiation.
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